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Jaunākie WikiLeaks publiskotie ASV diplomātiskie dokumenti rāda, ka Latvijas iestāšanās NATO nav tikai tukša skaņa, - pirmoreiz kopš aukstā kara beigām ASV un tās Rietumu sabiedrotie ir sākuši izstrādāt militārus plānus, ka no Krievijas draudiem aizsargāt “vārīgākās” Austrumeiropas daļas, tostarp Latviju.

WikiLeaks centrālajā vietnē no šīm piecām telegrammām atrodamas tikai divas, taču četras telegrammas publiskojis britu laikraksts The Guardian.

No tām izriet, ka Krievijas agresijas gadījumā pret Poliju vai trim Baltijas valstīm karadarbībā iesaistītos deviņas NATO divīzijas (ASV, britu, vācu un poļu), savukārt britu un ASV karakuģus uzņemtu Ziemeļpolijas un Vācijas ostas. Pirmās NATO militārās mācības šī plāna ietvaros varētu notikt jau nākamgad.

Tiek ziņots, ka lēmums sākt gatavot šādus „plānus neparedzētām situācijām” (contingency plans) pieņemts šogad NATO mītnē Briselē, tā beidzot gadiem ilgo šaubīšanos, ko īsti domāt par Vladimira Putina Krieviju.

The Guardian norāda, ka šis lēmums saskaņā ar slepenu ASV valsts sekretāres Hilarijas Klintones parakstītu telegrammu iezīmē jaunu pagriezienu NATO aizsardzības plānošanā Eiropā. Lēmums nav publiskots, jo NATO jau tradicionāli atsakās atklāt detaļas par militārās organizācijas „plāniem neparedzētām situācijām” ar visas NATO spēkiem aizstāvēt konkrētas dalībvalstis.

Klintones telegrammā arī minēts, ka Baltijas valstu aizsardzības iekļaušana jaunajā plānā ir tikai pirmais solis pašreizējo atsevišķām valstīm paredzēto NATO aizsardzības plānu pārstrādāšanā par reģionāliem aizsardzības plāniem.

Kā rāda viena no publiskotajām telegrammām, ASV admirālis Džeimss Stavridis, NATO spēku komandieris Eiropā ir ierosinājis izstrādāt aizsardzības plānus tieši trim Baltijas valstīm – Latvijai, Lietuvai un Igaunijai. Stavrida priekšgājējam Džonam Kredokam, kā norāda The Guardian, tas nebija izdevies, jo iebilduši vācieši, kuri nav vēlējušies sakaitināt Kremli.

Tagadējo lēmumu par pozīcijas maiņu pieņēmis nevis NATO augstākais lēmējorgāns – Ziemeļatlantijas padome, bet gan augstākās militārpersonas. Jaunais plāns paredz iekļaut Baltijas valstis kopā ar Poliju jaunā reģionālās aizsardzības shēmā, kas izstrādāta pēdējos mēnešos un nosaukta Eagle Guardian.

ASV jau ir piedāvājusi Polijai dislocēt speciālos jūras spēkus Gdaņskas un Gdiņas ostās, izvietot Polijā F-16 lidmašīnas un pārvietot uz šo valsti arī C-130 Hercules transportlidmašīnas no savām bāzēm Vācijā.

No telegrammām izriet, ka NATO amatpersonas ir informējušas Polijas un Baltijas valstu pārstāvjus par lēmumu izveidot reģionālo NATO aizsardzības stratēģiju Ziemeļaustrumu Eiropai pie Krievijas robežām, par ko Baltijas valstu pārstāvji izteikuši gandarījumu. Turklāt ticis uzsvērts – amerikāņi akcentējuši to, ka tagad šis plāns esot tieši Vācijas ideja.

Klintone telegrammā norādījusi, ka ziņas par jaunajiem aizsardzības plāniem, visticamākais, atkal radīs sasprindzinājumu attiecībās ar Krieviju. Savukārt Igaunijas varas iestāžu pārstāvji norādījuši, ka jaunais NATO plāns ir lieliska pirmsziemassvētku dāvana, un apsolījušies to paturēt noslēpumā, tikai izteikuši bažas par to, kāda varētu būt Varšavas reakcija un vai gadījumā plānam neuzliks veto kāda no Eiropas lielvarām, kurām nav izdevīga attiecību pasliktināšanās ar Krieviju.

Pašlaik pret Eagle Guardian plāna paplašināšanu attiecībā uz Baltijas valstīm, kā izriet no WikiLeaks telegrammām, visvairāk iebildusi tieši Polija: tā gan neiebilst pret Baltijas valstu aizsardzības plānu izstrādi, taču pietiekami cieši uzstājusi uz priekšroku atsevišķam plānam tieši Polijai, lai gan būtu iespējams Eagle Guardian ietvaros izstrādāt arī divas savstarpēji papildinošas sadaļas – gan Polijai, gan Baltijas valstīm.

Pietiek šodien publisko visas WikiLeaks un The Guardian publiskotās telegrammas oriģinālvalodā.

Wednesday, 16 December 2009, 13:02

S E C R E T TALLINN 000373

SIPDIS

EO 12958 DECL: 2019/12/16

TAGS NATO, MARR, MCAP, PREL, EN

SUBJECT: Estonia Pleased with NATO Contingency Planning Plan

REF: STATE 127892

CLASSIFIED BY: Marc Nordberg, Political/Economic Chief; REASON: 1.4(B), (D)

Classified by DCM Karen Decker for Reasons 1.4 B & D.

1. (U) Pol Chief and DATT delivered reftel points on December 15 to Paul Teesalu, Director of the MFA's Security Policy Division, and to Sven Sakkov, MOD Undersecretary for Defense Policy, and Eerik Marmei, MOD Director of the NATO and ESDP Department.

2. (S) Teesalu welcomed the information and called it an "early Christmas present." Teesalu was pleased to see a clear plan to add the Baltic States to Eagle Guardian, and thought this the best option for easily including the Baltic region in contingency planning. Teesalu also fully agreed that all such discussion should be conducted out of the public eye, stating that Estonia is looking for, "solidarity, not visibility." The GOE has asked the Lithuanians to keep contingency planning discussions private as well.

3. (S) Sakkov likewise stated this information is good news, and is a major event for Estonia 5 B= years after joining NATO. He thanked the USG for its support on contingency planning. Sakkov however wondered about the Polish reaction. On the margins of the November 2008 NATO-Ukraine Commission meeting the Polish delegation told Sakkov that they were against including the Baltic states into Eagle Guardian as they did not want the Polish plan to be diluted or held hostage in case other allies opposed adding the Baltic states. Sakkov added he recently heard from Lithuanian counterparts that Poland has not softened its position.

4. (S) Sakkov was also concerned about the process of getting the Baltic region added to EAGLE GUARDIAN, asking on several occasions whether the Chairman of the Military Committee (CMC) would have to inform the North Atlantic Council (NAC) or just the Secretary General (SECGEN), and how the addition would be approved in the MC and tasked to SACEUR. Although not expressly stated, he seemed concerned about opportunities for other members to put a stop to the process.

5. (S) Sakkov further stated he would immediately inform President Ilves, prior to Ilves' departure for a December 16 meeting with the Baltic, and possibly Polish, presidents. Sakkov said Estonian J3 and J5 planners were ready to assist in developing the contingency plan, but asked if the USG had any further information on a reassurance package for the Baltic states - something that can be used publicly, such as increased exercises, to show the Baltic peoples they will be covered by Article 5. POLT

Wednesday, 16 December 2009, 15:00

S E C R E T USNATO 000588

SIPDIS

EO 12958 DECL: 12/16/2019

TAGS PGOV, PREL, MARR, NATO

SUBJECT: DEMARCHE DELIVERED ON NATO CONTINGENCY PLANNING

FOR OUR BALTIC ALLIES

REF: STATE 127892

Classified By: Charge John Heffern for reasons 1.4 (b/d).

1. (S) The Polish, Estonian, Latvian, and Lithuanian PermReps, and Secretary General Rasmussen, welcomed the U.S. decision to support expanding the NATO contingency plan for Poland, EAGLE GUARDIAN, to include the Baltic countries. Ambassador Daalder, accompanied by German Ambassador Ulrich Brandenburg, delivered reftel points in separate December 15 meetings with the SecGen, the Polish PermRep, and a joint meeting with all three Baltic PermReps. The Ambassador stressed that this initiative was a routine adjustment to ongoing contingency planning, that military and geographic logic dictated that the defense of Poland include the defense of the Baltic states, and that this initiative, as with other NATO planning, should remain in restricted NATO circles and was not for public consumption. He explained that work on this initiative should start immediately in January following NATO's winter break.

2. (S) The SecGen was extremely pleased by the U.S. support for an approach that would meet a legitimate demand by three NATO Allies. Poland more cautiously agreed with the approach so long as it did not delay completion of the Poland-related portion of EAGLE GUARDIAN. The Baltic PermRemps were grateful for this initiative, and stressed the need to ensure this would be a real plan to defend their countries rather than a simple appendage to the Poland contingency plan. They understood the need to keep this issue within NATO, and asked for guidance in responding to public inquiries. Ambassador Daalder shared with the Baltic PermReps reftel points on press inquiries. They agreed to adopt a uniform press response.

3. (S) Ambassador Daalder acknowledged in these meetings that Germany had initiated the proposal for expanding EAGLE GUARDIAN to include the Baltic states. The German PermRep noted that the German Chancellery and Ministry of Defense had signed off on this approach, and MFA approval should come after FM Westerwelle's full briefing on this issue. HEFFERN

Friday, 22 January 2010, 15:17

S E C R E T USNATO 000035

SIPDIS

EO 12958 DECL: 01/22/2030

TAGS MCAP, MARR, PREL, NATO, PINS, EN, LG, LH, PL, RS

SUBJECT: NATO AGREES TO DO CONTINGENCY PLANNING FOR THE

BALTIC STATES

REF: IMSWM-0028-2010

Classified By: D/Political Advisor A. "Hoot" Baez. Reasons: 1.4 (b) an d (d).

1. (S/REL NATO) On January 22, NATO's Military Committee agreed to expand EAGLE GUARDIAN, the Alliance's contingency plan for the reinforcement and defense of Poland, to also include the defense and reinforcement of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

2. (S/REL NATO) The Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), ADM Stavridis, had proposed the EAGLE GUARDIAN expansion at the January 20 meeting of the Military Committee, after which the expansion was formally submitted to Allies for decision under a silence procedure. HEFFERN

Tuesday, 26 January 2010, 20:29

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 STATE 007810

SIPDIS

EO 12958 DECL: 01/22/2020

TAGS MARR, MCAP, NATO, PREL, EN, LG, LH, PL

SUBJECT: EXPANSION OF EAGLE GUARDIAN TO INCLUDE BALTIC

ALLIES

REF: A. USNATO 35 B. 09 STATE 127892

Classified By: EUR PDAS Nancy McEldowney for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

1. (U) This is an action cable. Please see paragraphs 3-4.

2. (S) Summary and Action Request. On January 22 NATO Allies agreed in the Military Committee to expand the NATO Contingency Plan for Poland, EAGLE GUARDIAN, to include the defense and reinforcement of the Baltic States. Posts in Allied capitals should be prepared to explain, as necessary, U.S. support for this approach and how it fits within our broader vision for NATO contingency planning, as well as how to respond to media inquiries on the matter. Posts are asked to draw on the points below, as necessary, in discussions on this issue. End Summary and Action Request.

3. (C) Posts need not engage host government officials proactively on NATO contingency planning at this time, but are encouraged to use the points below as the basis for discussions on the matter as needed.

(S/REL NATO) CONTINGENCY POINTS (FOR USE AT POST,S DISCRETION)

-- The United States believes that NATO - as a matter of course - should conduct appropriate contingency planning for the possible defense of Allied territory and populations.

-- As President Obama said in Prague: "We must work together as NATO members so that we have contingency plans in place to deal with new threats, wherever they may come from."

-- The U.S. welcomes the decision to expand EAGLE GUARDIAN to include the defense of the Baltic states, and sees it as a logical military extension of the existing contingency plan that fits well within the existing scenario.

-- We see the expansion of EAGLE GUARDIAN as a step toward the possible expansion of NATO's other existing country-specific contingency plans into regional plans. This is the first step in a multi-stage process to develop a complete set of appropriate contingency plans for the full range of possible threats - both regional and functional - as soon as possible. At the same time, we believe contingency planning is only one element of NATO's Article 5 preparedness.

(S/REL NATO) POINTS ABOUT PUBLIC DISCUSSION OF PLANS (FOR USE AT POST'S DISCRETION)

-- The United States believes strongly that such planning should not be discussed publicly. These military plans are classified at the NATO SECRET level.

-- The Alliance has many public diplomacy tools at its disposal. Contingency planning is not one of them. What we should do is explore other public steps for demonstrating the vitality of Article 5, such as exercises, defense investment, and partnerships.

-- Public discussion of contingency plans undermines their military value, giving insight into NATO's planning processes. This weakens the security of all Allies.

-- A public discussion of contingency planning would also likely lead to an unnecessary increase in NATO-Russia tensions, something we should try to avoid as we work to improve practical cooperation in areas of common NATO-Russia interest.

-- We hope that we can count on your support in keeping discussions on NATO contingency planning out of the public domain.

-- We should work together to develop strategies - to include activities such as exercises, defense investment, and partnerships - for demonstrating to our publics that Article 5's value ultimately lies in NATO's capabilities and deterrence, rather than specific planning.

4. (C) Washington strongly believes that the details of NATO,s contingency plans should remain in confidential channels. However, recent press coverage of NATO decisions regarding possible contingency planning options for the Baltic region may lead to additional media inquiries. If necessary, posts may use the points below in responding to

STATE 00007810 002 OF 002

public queries.

(U) PUBLIC/PRESS INQUIRIES -- IF ASKED:

-- NATO does not discuss specific plans.

-- As a matter of course, however, NATO engages in planning in order to be as prepared as possible for whatever situations might arise, particularly as relates to its ability to carrying out its Article 5 commitments.

-- Plans are not static. NATO is constantly reviewing and revising its plans.

-- NATO planning is an internal process designed to make the Alliance as prepared as possible for future contingencies. It is not "aimed" at any other country.

-- President Obama acknowledged this when he said at Prague that "We must work together as NATO members so that we have contingency plans in place to deal with new threats, wherever they may come from." CLINTON

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 USNATO 000464

NOFORN

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DNG: CO 10/18/2029

TAGS: MARR MCAP PREL NATO ZB RS

SUBJECT: ACTION REQUEST: BALTIC CONTINGENCY PLANNING: SOME

IDEAS

REF: A. VILNIUS 533

Ā¶B. VILNIUS 527

Ā¶C. TALLIN 309

Ā¶D. RIGA 514

Ā¶E. SECRETARY (SECTO) 007

Classified By: Ambassador Ivo Daalder.

Reasons: 1.4 (b) and (d).

Ā¶1. (SBU) This is an action request.

See paragraph 10.

Ā¶2. (S/NF) SUMMARY: Leaders in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are pressing hard for NATO Article 5 contingency planning for the Baltic states.

President Obama and Secretary Clinton are on record supporting such contingency planning for Allies.

At the same time, however, NATO internal processes and politics make it difficult to openly carry out such planning, particularly if it would require specifying Russia as a potential threat.

Nevertheless, there are possible ways to meet the substance of Baltic demands.

The existing contingency plan for Poland, for example, might be modified to include the Baltics or generic plans for the use of the NATO Response Force could be exercised and certified in a manner consistent with Baltic defense.

We request high-level interagency discussion of the issue to develop the substance and NATO tactics of Baltic planning and exercises.

END SUMMARY

Why Baltic Contingency Planning? --------------------------------

Ā¶3. (S/NF) As reported in refs A-D, leaders in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are pressing hard for NATO Article 5 contingency planning for the defense of the Baltics.

The Administration at the highest levels is on record supporting such efforts.

President Obama told NATO Secretary General Rasmussen this during the latter's September 28-29 trip to Washington.

Furthermore, Secretary Clinton told her colleagues at the September 22 "Trans-Atlantic Dinner" in New York that the U.S. wants more work on Article 5 contingency plans (ref E).

The Difficulties ----------------

Ā¶4. (S/NF) At the same time, the internal processes and politics of the Alliance make it unlikely that a Baltic-only Article 5 contingency plan could be developed.

NATO contingency plans are designed for possible future security risks that are consistent with NATO's General Intelligence Estimate (MC 161) and NATO Ministerial Guidance.

While Admiral Stavridis, the Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), does have the authority to generate, review and revise contingency plans based on changes in the strategic security environment, those changes to the security environment would need to be reflected in MC 161.

Without a change to MC 161, SACEUR does not have the authority to develop new Article 5 contingency plans.

Moreover, changes to MC 161 are not made by SACEUR.

They must be agreed by the NAC.

Ā¶5. (S/NF) In this case, the Baltic states clearly believe that the Russian Federation represents a future security risk and desire a contingency plan to address that risk.

And therein lies the problem.

While the exact content of MC 161 cannot be discussed in this message, post-Cold War NATO has consistently said that it no longer views Russia as a threat. Allies, for example, agreed to language in the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act that "NATO and Russia do not consider each other as adversaries."

As we saw during the debates over the Russia-Georgia war, many Allies will take great pains to avoid even the suggestion that the Alliance and Russia are on course toward a new Cold War.

Countries such as Germany are unlikely to agree changes to MC 161 that explicitly define Russia as a potential threat, preferring instead to argue that the Alliance needs to find a way to work cooperatively with Moscow.

USNATO 00000464

002 OF 003

But Hard is Not "Too Hard" --------------------------

Ā¶6. (S/NF) Despite these difficulties, however, there are steps that can be taken to meet the substance of the Baltic demands and demonstrate the Allied commitment to their defense.

As a start, SACEUR did begin conducting informal "prudent planning" efforts within his own Headquarters in the wake of the Russian-Georgian war.

These efforts should continue.

Furthermore, the existing NATO contingency plan for Poland is up for revision.

We could explore the possibility of revising this plan to include the reinforcement/defense of the Baltics as an element of the reinforcement/defense of Poland.

Indeed, this idea was first raised by the German PermRep in conversation with Ambassador Daalder.

NATO also has a number of agreed generic contingency plans for the NATO Response Force (NRF), including for relatively high-end "initial entry operations." Perhaps these generic NRF plans can be exercised/certified in a manner that would be consistent with the defense of the Baltics.

Finally, we could pursue a generic Article 5 Alliance-wide contingency plan which would be applicable to multiple threats.

Necessary for NATO-Russia; Expeditionary Forces --------------------------------------------- --

Ā¶7. (S/NF) Baltic reassurance can not be seen in isolation. Our ability to move forward with other U.S. priorities at NATO will be affected by our ability to reassure the Baltic states.

For example, our ability to maintain an Allied consensus on re-engagement with Moscow will depend on it. Furthermore, the Baltic states have made clear that if they do not feel they can trust Allies to defend them, they will have to consider developing a force structure focused on territorial defense rather than on expeditionary capabilities.

U.S. Reassurance Does Not Equal NATO Reassurance --------------------------------------------- ---

Ā¶8. (S/NF) The U.S. has taken a number of bilateral steps to reassure the Baltics, including tasking the U.S. European Command (which ADM Stavridis heads under his U.S.-only hat) to develop a plan for supporting NATO deterrence and defense in the Baltic region.

While these efforts can be useful in supporting NATO contingency planning and reassurance efforts, if done on their own they could actually undermine our efforts to reassure the Baltic states that all NATO Allies will carry out their Article 5 commitments.

Defense of the Baltics must remain a NATO Article 5 commitment, not solely a U.S. bilateral one.

Unless consensus can be achieved within the Alliance to take positive steps in this direction, the Baltic states will continue to lose faith in the Alliance, undercutting a key U.S. strategic objective.

Washington should not allow U.S. bilateral reassurance efforts to become an easy substitute for NATO-wide efforts.

Recommended Way Ahead ---------------------

Ā¶9. (S/NF) Ambassador Daalder has been having quiet conversations with some Allies, as well as with SACEUR, to see what might be possible.

We believe that a key aspect of any approach would be to socialize the NAC on the issue through briefings by SACEUR on current plans and the extent to which they satisfy the requirement to defend Allied territory.

In addition to further consideration of the ideas in para 6 above, Mission proposes the following as an initial way ahead on this issue that we should seek to set in train:

-- The Military Committee should task NATO Military Authorities to review the current family of contingency plans to determine if they are sufficient to meet NATO's Article 5 commitments;

USNATO 00000464

003 OF 003

-- The North Atlantic Council should ask SACEUR to brief PermReps on the status of these plans and on their ability to provide for the defense/protection of Allied territory, populations, and Alliance interests;

-- SHAPE should request that each Ally assess its own national plans and national contributions in support of these plans;

-- Strategic communications/public messaging regarding NATO contingency planning would allow the Alliance to highlight its efforts to provide for the protection of Alliance territory from the range of threats;

-- Ongoing Strategic Concept discussion and seminars should be used to identify new security threats and ways to meet those threats.

This process could help build consensus for new contingency planning efforts;

-- The U.S. should consider the possibility/suitability of adapting the upcoming USEUCOM bilateral exercise, "Baltic Host 2010," into a NATO deterrence and defense of the Baltic states exercise; and

-- As NATO contingency plans are developed, task the development of supporting USEUCOM contingency plans.

Ā¶10. (S/NF) Mission requests that a NATO IPC be scheduled in the near future to discuss this issue further, with a view to developing a coherent interagency-agreed strategy on how to take forward the President's vision of contingency planning in NATO.

DAALDER 

S E C R E T STATE 127892

NOFORN

FOLLOWING STATE 127892 DATED 150910Z DEC 09 SENT ACTION RIGA,

TALLINN, VILNIUS, USNATO INFO ALL NATO POST COLLECTIVE IS BEING

REPEATED FOR YOUR ACTION.

QUOTE:

S E C R E T STATE 127892

SIPDIS

NOFORN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2019

TAGS: NATO MARR MCAP PREL EN LG LH PL

SUBJECT: NATO CONTINGENCY PLANNING FOR OUR BALTIC ALLIES

REFS: A) USNATO 561  B) USNATO 464  C) VILNIUS 569

D) RIGA 514

Classified By: ACTING EUR A/S NANCY MCELDOWNEY -FOR REASONS 1.4(B)

AND (D)

Ā¶1. (U) This is an action cable.

Please see paragraphs 2-3.

Ā¶2. (S/NF) Summary and Action Request. The United States is developing a strategy for reaffirming both NATO and U.S. commitment to the core responsibility of the Alliance: collective defense.

Examining NATO's approach to contingency planning will be one element of that strategy.

Moving from country-specific to regional contingency plans is one potential method. Expanding EAGLE GUARDIAN could be a first step in favor of regional planning.

USNATO should engage NATO Secretary General Rasmussen to begin to build support for expanding Eagle Guardian. In early 2010, the U.S. Military Representative (MILREP) at NATO HQ should take the following actions:

1) meet jointly with the Chairman of the Military Committee (CMC), the German MILREP, and other MILREPs as appropriate to urge the CMC to task the Supreme Allied Commander, Europe (SACEUR) to include the Baltic States in the revision of EAGLE GUARDIAN, and 2) approach the CMC and request that he task SACEUR to brief the Military Committee on each of NATO's contingency plans with guidance that he identify any gaps in those plans.

We will be better positioned to consider a broader regional approach after receiving SACEUR's assessment

USNATO and Action Embassies are asked to engage with appropriate Baltic and Polish officials before December 16 to outline the U.S. position, while stressing the need to keep details related to NATO's military plans confidential.

Contingency points are also provided at paragraph 4 for responding to public inquiries. End Summary and Action Request.

Ā¶3. (S) Washington shares USNATO's goal of a non-politicized process for moving forward.

Washington believes that increased public attention on the issue could complicate our efforts to achieve that goal.

We need to make that point clearly to our Baltic Allies and Poland, while also underscoring that we take their request for NATO contingency planning seriously and support steps to address their concerns.

We understand Baltic and Polish leaders will meet on December 16 and will discuss, among other topics, NATO contingency planning.

It will be important to engage with Baltic and Polish officials in advance of that meeting to both outline our support for expanding EAGLE GUARDIAN, and our vision for a process that can deliver a successful result.

In discussions with Baltic and Polish officials, Action Posts should draw upon the points below.

(S/REL NATO) Begin Talking Points:

FOR RIGA, TALLINN, AND VILNIUS

-- The United States has taken careful note of the repeated requests by all three Baltic states for NATO contingency planning for the defense of the Baltic region.

-- The United States believes that NATO - as a matter of course - should conduct appropriate contingency planning for the possible defense of Allied territory and populations.

NATO's Article 5 commitment requires no less.

-- As President Obama said in Prague: "We must work together as NATO members so that we have contingency plans in place to deal with new threats, wherever they may come from."

-- After spending the last several months examining options on how to carry out NATO contingency planning for the Baltic states, the United States has decided that the best course of action would be to take advantage of the ongoing revision of the existing defense of Poland plan, EAGLE GUARDIAN.

EAGLE GUARDIAN could be expanded to include the defense of the Baltic states.

This expansion is a logical military extension of the existing contingency plan and fits well within the scenario posited by EAGLE GUARDIAN.

-- We would also like to make clear that we see the expansion of EAGLE GUARDIAN as a step toward the possible expansion of NATO's other existing country-specific contingency plans into regional plans.

This is the first step in a multi- stage process to develop a complete set of appropriate contingency plans for the full range of possible threats -- both regional and functional -- as soon as possible.

At the same time, we believe contingency planning is only one element of NATO's Article 5 preparedness.

-- The United States is prepared to work closely with NATO Military Authorities and with other Allies to forge a consensus in favor of expanding EAGLE GUARDIAN to include the defense of the Baltic states, starting immediately in the new year when NATO reopens following its winter break.

(S/REL NATO) FOR WARSAW

-- The United States has taken careful note of the repeated requests by all three Baltic states for NATO contingency planning for the defense of the Baltic region.

-- The United States believes that NATO - as a matter of course - should conduct appropriate contingency planning for the possible defense of Allied territory and populations.

NATO's Article 5 commitment requires no less.

-- As President Obama said in Prague: "We must work together as NATO members so that we have contingency plans in place to deal with new threats, wherever they may come from."

-- After spending the last several months examining options for how to carry out NATO contingency planning for the Baltic states, the United States has decided that the best course of action would be to take advantage of the ongoing revision of the existing defense of Poland plan, EAGLE GUARDIAN.

EAGLE GUARDIAN could be expanded to include the defense of the Baltic states.

-- This expansion is a logical military extension of the existing contingency plan and fits well within the scenario posited by EAGLE GUARDIAN.

In fact, defending Poland necessarily entails defending the Baltic states, as well.

-- We would also like to make clear that we see the expansion of EAGLE GUARDIAN as a step toward the possible expansion of NATO's other existing country-specific contingency plans into regional plans.

This is the first step in a multi- stage process to develop a complete set of appropriate contingency plans for the full range of possible threats - both regional and functional - as soon as possible.

At the same time, we believe contingency planning is only one element of NATO's Article 5 preparedness.

-- The United States is prepared to work closely with NATO Military Authorities and with other Allies to forge a consensus in favor of expanding EAGLE GUARDIAN to include the defense of the Baltic states, starting immediately in the new year when NATO reopens following its winter break.

-- We do not believe that this will result in any significant delays for concluding the EAGLE GUARDIAN revision.

Nor do we believe that this in any way endangers planning for the defense of Poland.

In fact, we believe that the planning for the defense of Poland will be much more robust with the inclusion of the Baltics.

(S/REL NATO) POINTS ABOUT PUBLIC DISCUSSION OF PLANS (FOR USE AT POST'S DISCRETION)

-- The United States believes strongly that such planning should not be discussed publicly. These military plans are classified at the NATO SECRET level .

-- The Alliance has many public diplomacy tools at its disposal.

Contingency planning is not one of them.

What we should do is explore other public steps for demonstrating the vitality of Article 5, such as exercises, defense investment, and partnerships.

-- Public discussion of contingency plans undermines their military value, giving insight into NATO's planning processes.

This weakens the security of all Allies.

-- Public discussion of the plan would also make it politically much more difficult for some Allies to support the EAGLE GUARDIAN revision, creating divisions within the Alliance and throwing the whole project into doubt.

-- A public discussion of contingency planning would also likely lead to an unnecessary increase in NATO-Russia tensions, something we should try to avoid as we work to improve practical cooperation in areas of common NATO-Russia interest.

-- We believe that the proposed revision of EAGLE GUARDIAN is achievable and will represent a significant response to the Baltic request for contingency planning.

-- We hope that we can count on your support in these efforts, including on keeping discussions on NATO contingency planning out of the public domain.

-- We should work together on using exercises, defense investment, and partnerships to demonstrate to our publics that Article 5's value ultimately lies in NATO's capabilities and deterrence, rather than specific planning.

(C) FOR ALL ACTION POSTS -- IF ASKED

Q: Why wait until the new year?

Why not start now? A: NATO Headquarters is heading into its winter break, when only a skeletal staff is in place.

Our ability to achieve success in this matter will be substantially improved once senior Allied personnel have returned to work early in the new year.

We pledge to take the matter up expeditiously at that time.

Q: Will waiting until the new year give NATO Military Authorities sufficient time to complete the revision of the EAGLE GUARDIAN?

A: According to our conversations with NATO's senior military authorities, beginning the process of incorporating the Baltic states into EAGLE GUARDIAN in early January still gives them sufficient time to complete the revision by February as originally planned.

Ā¶4.

(C) Washington strongly prefers that discussion of NATO's contingency plans in general, and the possible expansion of EAGLE GUARDIAN in particular, remain in confidential channels.

However, posts may use the points below if necessary in responding to public queries about these issues.

(U) PUBLIC/PRESS INQUIRIES -- IF ASKED:

-- NATO does not discuss specific plans.

-- As a matter of course, however, NATO does planning in order to be as prepared as possible for whatever situations might arise, particularly as relates to its ability to carrying out its Article 5 commitments.

-- Plans are not static.

NATO is constantly reviewing and revising its plans.

-- NATO planning, however, is an internal process designed to make the Alliance as prepared as possible for future contingencies.

It is not "aimed" at any other country.

-- President Obama acknowledged this when he said at Prague that "We must work together as NATO members so that we have contingency plans in place to deal with new threats, wherever they may come from." CLINTON UNQUOTE CLINTON

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